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promise the Best Picture succeeder for theOscars 2025is more unmanageable than most years , but there are some vital stats and movement to know if you want to choose who will bring home the bacon aright . This year ’s nominee includeAnora , The Brutalist , A Complete Unknown , Conclave , Dune : Part Two , Emilia Pérez , I’m Still Here , Nickel Boys , The Substance , andWicked . While each holds a technological chance ofwinning the Oscars 2025 Best Picture class , they are not all realistic . That ’s why most of the race has rotate aroundAnora , The Brutalist , Conclave , andEmilia Pérezbeing the frontrunners at dissimilar level .
Now that the 97th Academy Awards ceremonial is right around the niche , if you ’re like me , you need to foretell what pic will win the different categories right . This is particularly dependable for Best Picture . The Oscars ' biggest dirty money has had a very unlike wash this year than last twelvemonth whenOppenheimereasily retained its frontrunner condition and dominated the award show . WithAnora , The Brutalist , Conclave , andEmilia Pérezdoing well with nominations and herald honor , predicting the victor is n’t easy . That ’s why I ’ve compiled some stats and trend to try on and help screen out through a militant wash .
10SAG’s Best Cast Winner Has Matched Best Picture Roughly 50%
A Point In Conclave’s Favor
Conclave ’s prominent forerunner win came at the Screen Actors Guild Awards when it was pick out as the Best Cast class winner . This category can often be seen as a strong indicator of what movie is going to acquire Best Picture at the Oscars . That ’s only become more true in late year . The winner at SAG has equal the eventual Best Picture winner four of the last five years , asOppenheimer , Everything Everywhere All At Once , CODA , andParasitewon at SAG before make the Oscar . That ’s whyConclave ’s Best Picture candidacyimproved follow its SAG victory .
If you need to bet on SAG and the actor ’s branch fix the race , Conclaveshould be the pick . However , it ’s deserving noting that while SAG has a strong track platter in recent years , the overall chronicle of the correlation between the two awards is shaky . 15 of 29 movies that deliver the goods at SAG went on to also bring home the bacon Best Picture overall . So , whilethe maths indicatesConclavehas a slender edge , that also means it ’s not a lock . In fact , the last three times SAG and Oscars did n’t match , the Best Picture victor was n’t even nominated for Best Cast .
Best Picture proposition : PickConclave
9PGA Has Matched The Best Picture Winner 12 Of The Last 15 Years
Anora Benefits From This Trend
Anoragot a major encouragement to its Best Picture standing when it was selected as the winner of the top prize at the Producers Guild of America Awards . The PGAs have an implausibly strong path track record of presage the Best Picture winner , as they have matched 12 of the last 15 years . The movies that won at PGA and failed to gain ground Best Picture are1917(2019),La La Land(2016 ) , andThe Big Short(2015 ) . Overall , they ’ve matched 24 of 35 time . That is whyAnorabecame the Best Picture frontrunnerto many after this win .
Anora is a significant awards time of year performing artist , racking up wins from various festivals , ceremonies , and critics groups forward of the Oscars .
Agreeing with PGA is arguably one of the safer bets when it comes to predicting what will win Best Picture . There has only been one Best Picture Oscar winner that did n’t have a PGA nominating speech , so the observance has always had a substantial connectedness to the Academy . That stat sinksNickel BoysandI’m Still Here ’s prospect . Anorahas had a steady rise late in the season to recover its frontrunner status seemingly , so voter align with the PGA winner could occur - disregarding of if Mikey Madison wins Best Actress .
Best Picture Suggestion : PickAnora
8Winning Best Director Goes A Long Way To Winning Best Picture
The Two Awards Often Go Hand-In-Hand
The Best Director card for the Oscars 2025 includes some big names who have all received their first Oscar nominating speech . It ’s a close race between the campaigner : Sean Baker ( Anora ) , Brady Corbet ( The Brutalist ) , Jacques Audiard ( Emilia Pérez ) , Coralie Fargeat ( The Substance ) , and James Mangold ( A Complete Unknown ) . Predicting who wins the directing Oscar could be lively to aright getting Best Picture right . There is a hard history of Best Director and Best Picture going to the same movie , as they ’ve matched 69 of 96 times previously . This includes four of the last five years .
When looking at Best Director , it appears that the wash is down to Sean Baker - who won at DGA - and Brady Corbet - who win at Golden Globes and BAFTA.Whoever you ultimately choose to gain Best Director , you should probably predict their movie to pull ahead Best Picture too . But you ca n’t do that if you ’re siding withConclave . There is certainly a humans where the category break up if Corbet wins Best Director and Baker’sAnorawins Best Picture . likewise , any literary argument forA Complete Unknownwinning Best Picture would belike require a surprise Mangold win here .
Best Picture trace : PickAnoraorThe Brutalist
7A Best Director Oscar Nomination Is Almost Always Needed To Win Best Picture
Sorry, Denis Villeneuve & Dune: Part Two
Not only is gain Best Director a great way to get a picture to gain Best Picture , but have a nomination in both categories is a must . There have only been six instances where a moving-picture show come through Best Picture without a Best Director nominating address : Wings(1927/28),Grand Hotel(1931/32),Driving Miss Daisy(1989),Argo(2012),Green Book(2018 ) , andCODA(2021 ) . block up a statistical unusual person , that would basically rule outConclave , Dune : Part Two , Nickel Boys , I’m Still Here , andWicked .
Edward Berger ( Conclave ) , Denis Villeneuve ( Dune : Part Two ) , RaMell Ross ( Nickel Boys ) , Walter Salles ( I ’m Still Here ) , and Jon M. Chu ( Wicked ) were not make for Best Director
The betting odds of the 97th Academy Awards delivering the 7th such case of this are higher than normal , though . Edward Berger was a surprising deletion from theBest Director lineup , and there is clearly love forConclave . If any of the Best Picture nominees without a Best Director nom are go to win , Conclaveis the good alternative . Still , anyone looking for a reason to go against find fault the pope drama can certainly find one with this stat .
Custom Image by Cooper Hood
Best Picture Suggestion : PickAnora , The Brutalist , orEmilia Pérez
6Winning Either Screenplay Category Can Foreshadow A Best Picture Win (Especially Adapted)
A Potential Saving Grace For Conclave
Best Director has the inviolable connexion to Best Director among the other categories , but winning a screenplay category is not far behind . The Best Picture winner has also won either Best Adapted or Best Original Screenplay in 61 of a potential 96 times . Adapted Screenplay is the greater predictor between the two categories , as 42 of the matches fare from there , while only 19 are from Original Screenplay . Even if we constringe the range down to more mod time , Best Picture has also won a screenplay class in 9 of the last 12 eld .
WithAnorapossibly set to fall back Original Screenplay toA Real Pain , if Best Picture gibe a screenplay class this year , Conclaveis the good choice .
This re - opens the room access forConclaveto issue as a Best Picture winner , as it is the expected achiever in Adapted Screenplay . However , it ’s also worth note that the matching has favored Original Screenplay more recently . Five Best Picture victor in the last 10 years also won Original Screenplay versus only two receiving Adapted Screenplay . But withAnorapossibly set up to lose Original Screenplay toA Real Pain , if Best Picture matches a screenplay family this twelvemonth , Conclaveis the beneficial selection .
5Only 1 Movie Has Won Best Picture & Best International Feature Film
Emilia Pérez & I’m Still Here Are Contenders In Both
Emilia PérezandI’m Still Hereare retentive shaft to win Best Picture at this point , although for very unlike reasons . Predicting either to win would belike mean believing they have a chance to joinParasite ’s sole cabaret . Bong Joon - ho ’s 2019 moving-picture show is the only cinema in Oscars history to win Best Picture and Best International Feature Film . Emilia PérezandI’m Still Hereare nominate in both category . Statistically , aBest Picture nominating speech ensure a profits in International Feature , but that wo n’t be the case this yr with two nominees in both categories for the first fourth dimension .
This is really a mark againstEmilia PérezandI’m Still Here ’s odds to gain . Neither film presently has enough support to conceive that they can win both of these category . Even as the Academy ’s voting body expands and becomes more outside , it ’s still not unwashed for alien language films to win Best Picture .
Best Picture proposition : Do n’t pickEmilia PérezorI’m Still Here
4Only 2 Sequels Have Ever Won Best Picture
Dune 2 Won’t Become The Third
Dune : Part Twoisn’t go to win Best Picturefor a lot of reasons , even if you ’d consider it your favorite pic of the campaigner , as I would . The reality is that there have only ever been two sequels to deliver the goods Best Picture : The Godfather Part IIandThe Lord of the Rings : The Return of the King . Denis Villeneuve’sDune 2is the 12th continuation nominated in the category . And while it may gain ground some below - the - line categories , the poor track record for sequels andDune 2 ’s astonishingly low place in prize season gives it no probability to succeed .
Best Picture Suggestion : Do n’t pickDune : Part Two
3There’s Only Been 1 Horror Movie To Win Best Picture
Similarly , it would not be knowing to predict thatThe Substancewill win Best Picture . It has the Best Director , Best Original Screenplay , and Best Actress nominations to help its case , but its revulsion musical style nature negatively bear upon it . The Silence of the Lambsis theonly horror movie to get ahead Best Picture . The Substanceis the 7th horror moving-picture show nominated in the category , so even though it has a technical chance to be the second such winner , the Oscars pick out a dead body - horror movie as the good film of the twelvemonth would be a monolithic shock .
Best Picture prompting : Do n’t pickThe Substance
210 Musicals Have Won Best Picture
Wicked & Emilia Pérez Are Unlikely To Change This
There were different points in awards season whenWickedorEmilia Pérezwere reckon as frontrunners to win Best Picture and bring some more recognition for musical theater . However , neither film is expected to gain ground the category at this microscope stage , and Oscars history show up one intellect why . There have only been10 musicals to win Best Picture . It ’s become increasingly rare over the age too . AfterOliver!won in 1968 , it accept another 34 geezerhood beforeChicagowon it all . It ’s been another 22 year since then without a musical win in Best Picture .
Best Picture Suggestion : Do n’t pickWickedorEmilia Pérez
116 Biopics Have Won Best Picture
A Complete Unknown Gets A Slight Bump Up
If you require to believe thatA Complete Unknownwill win Best Picture , look at the account of biopics could bolster your feelings . The biopic genre include all types of films , but the Academy is prostrate to reward them occasionally . There have been 16 moving-picture show to win Best Picture that can be classified as a biopic , including last year ’s success , Oppenheimer . However , biopics have n’t won Best Picture in back - to - back years since 1984 - 1985 .
exclude surprisal win in Director and Screenplay , to go along with Timothée Chalamet in Best Actor , I would n’t count onA Complete Unknownwinning . It could do well on theOscars 2025preferential ballots but not enough to really unseat a bounteous contender .
Best Picture Suggestion : Be cautious about pickingA Complete obscure
Final Verdict : PredictAnoraorConclaveto win Best Picture
