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The Academy Award for Best Picture is the most coveted accolade at theOscars , and while the race is one of the rigorous I in years , the data understandably shows that there is one favourite with just six days left before the genuine ceremony . The Academy Awards are all up to the thought of the Academy elector , with it being unacceptable to objectively tell what movie is beneficial or what movie will win Best Picture . However , there have been trends that have been followed throughout Oscars story , and these style suggest that this Best Picture candidate has the best shot .
The good deal ofBest Picture nominee for the 2025 Academy Awardsis fantastic , with the nominees includingAnora , The Brutalist , A Complete Unknown , Conclave , Dune : Part Two , Emilia Pérez , I’m Still Here , Nickel Boys , The Substance , andWicked . All of these films are some of the most critically spat picture of 2024 , and any one of them has a chance to win the Oscar . The race is fabulously close , with all incline having committed fanbases . However , this laurels season has already aim at who is most potential to win Best Picture come Oscars night .
Conclave’s SAG Ensemble Award Is A Huge Boost For Its Oscar Chances
Among Its Other Big Award Wins
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Conclavehas been a frontrunner for Best Picture throughout awarding season , and a recent award that the film received give its Oscar chances a huge hike . Conclavehas already been building a mass of momentum as contention has fence fellow nominees likeAnora , The Brutalist , andEmilia Pérez . Conclavehas also won a gross ton of accolade already , with it amaze an especially large rise in care when it win Best Film , Best Adapted Screenplay , Best redaction , and prominent British Film at the BAFTA Awards .
The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences annunciate the full list of 2025 Oscar nominations – incur out which motion picture were nominated .
Conclaverecently won Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Pictureat the Screen Actor Guild Awards , which gives the film a massive boost in the tether - up to Oscars dark . This is one of the most important categories at the SAG Awards , with the profits signalize thatConclavecould remain its successes at the Academy Awards . Conclave ’s other award at major and minor awarding depict show that the film has become a favorite in recent weeks , with it becoming a belated - stage contender for the Academy Award for Best Picture during the awards time of year .
Anora Still Has The Edge Over Conclave For Best Picture At The Oscars 2025
Thanks To The PGA Awards
DespiteConclaveseeming like it has a fairly good chance at winning Best Picture , the data also suggests thatAnorahas an even better chance . This comes from analyzing the Producers Guild of America Awards , which historically have been more accurate at predicting the Best Picture winners than the SAG Awards . Anoratook home the top prize at the PGA Awards , that being Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures . This PGA category has been devote to the future Best Picture winner 25 out of 35 times , mean that it signal thatAnorahas a passably good shot .
Meanwhile , the ensemble class at the SAG Awards has only been given to the future Best Picture winner 15 out of 29 times , mean that it is less accurate than the PGA Awards . The last prison term that they differed was during the awards season for 2020 movies , withThe Trial of the Chicago Sevenwinning the top SAG award andNomadlandwinning the top PGA award . Nomadlandthen go on to get ahead Best Picture .
Interestingly , the prison term that they dissent before that , SAG ended up accurately predicting the Best Picture victor while the PGA prize did n’t . The top SAG honor for the 2019 movie season went to future Best Picture winnerParasite , while the top PGA laurels went to1917 . So , while it is out of the question to accurately predict the Best Picture achiever base on other awarding display , these trends do signal thatAnorahas a better luck of gain based on historical precedent , butConclaveisn’t far behind .
Does Conclave’s Lack Of Best Director Nomination Help Or Hurt It?
Only Six Other Movies Have Pulled It Off
One of the biggest strikes againstConclave ’s chances of come through Best Picture is that it was n’t nominated in one of the most important Oscar categories : Best Director . Thenominees for Best Directorare Sean Baker forAnora , Brady Corbet forThe Brutalist , James Mangold forA Complete Unknown , Jacques Audiard forEmilia Pérez , and Coralie Fargeat forThe Substance . Edward Berger not getting a nomination forConclavewas surprising for many sports fan of the film , with it leading to some worries thatConclavedoesn’t have a shaft at winning Best Picture .
Throughout the account of the Academy Awards , only six movies have ever won Best Picture without a Best Director nomination . Those movies are 1927’sWings , 1932’sGrand Hotel , 1989’sDriving Miss Daisy , 2012’sArgo , 2018’sGreen Book , and 2021’sCoda . So , while it has happened three times since the 2010s , it is still incredibly rare for a film to gain Best Picture without a Best Director nomination . Conclavewinning Best Picture would mark only the seventh time that this has happened , meaning that it would be an telling feat for it to pull off .
The 2025 SAG Awards have laid out a general blueprint for projected success of the acting categories at the coming 2025 Oscars on March 2nd .
The recent swing in favour ofConclavemeans that there is a opening that its deficiency of a Best Director nomination could cease up helping it . It could be that the Academy voters decide to giveAnoraa Best Director award while givingCoclavea Best Picture awardso that both cinema can be appreciated . While this is unconvincing , the preferential ballot system could lead to something like this happening , givingConclavethe Best Picture win .
Could Any Movie Other Than Anora Or Conclave Win Best Picture?
The Brutalist Seems Like The Only Other Option
It seems incredibly unlikely that another moving picture outside ofAnoraorConclavewill acquire Best Picture this year , with both of them doing well at the majority of other awards show . The third most likely prospect is probablyThe Brutalist , and this is thanks to the plaudits that Adrien Brody ’s carrying into action is getting . Movies likeA Complete UnknownandThe Substancemay have a slight chance , but it would be lurid if any of them beatAnoraorConclave . However , like at anyOscarsceremony , it is impossible to predict what will come about at the Academy Awards .
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