Wicked
Wickedis a bright Best Picture challenger for the 2025 Oscars , and it ’s now secured a major accomplishment as the National Board of Review ’s Best Film achiever . The NBR awards are one of the early indicator that accolade season is kicking into full gear wheel . This included naming the ten salutary movies of the yr , withWickedtopping the tilt . This included beat expected2025 Oscars Best Picture nomineeslikeAnora , Conclave , A over Unknown , peach Sing , and bright contenders likeGladiator II , A Real Pain , Queer , andBabygirl . That makesWicked ’s win for Best Film at NBRa solid accomplishment .
It ’s difficult to see tidings that the National Board of Review namedWickedthe year ’s Best Film and not think about what it means for the movie ’s Best Picture chance at the 2025 Oscar . The extremely successful Broadway musical adaption is now deemed better than motion-picture show that were consider to be in a better position to make headway Best Picture next March . It marks a shift in the landscape of a very competitive and irregular honor season , andI’ve seen reactions toWicked ’s NBR win that make it feel like it ’s heading for Oscars halo next- but is it ?
History Suggests Wicked Won’t Win Best Picture - Despite NBR’s Best Film Win
The National Board Of Review’s Best Film Award Isn’t A Major Best Picture Predictor
Wicked ’s win at NBR is impressive , no doubt , but the movie is not suddenly in magnetic pole position to bring home the bacon Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars because of it . The cold hard truth is that the betting odds of that happen are still mostly stacked against the musical . Wickedis the 93rd movie to win Best Film from the National Board of Review . However , only 22 of the late 92 winners went on to also come through Best Pictureat the Oscars . That ’s only a 23 % hit rate with NBR ’s Best Film and the Oscars ' Best Picture winners check .
Wicked is augur to earn more Oscar nominations than The Wizard of Oz , but it remains to be seen if it wins more than the 1939 classic .
ViewingWickedas having a roughly one in five shot of winning Best Picture because it won NBR ’s Best Film might seem like middling good betting odds in the noble-minded dodge of the award season . That might even be a fair judgement ofWicked ’s current Best Picture oddsin the wash . However , the correlation between NBR and the Academy Awards is far worse since the start of the twenty-first one C . The two awards shows have only check on the best film of the year three times since 2000 . Those victor wereNo Country For Old Men , Slumdog Millionaire , andGreen Book .
I do n’t sense that the Broadway adaptation is suddenly a frontrunner to pull ahead
To be clear , I’m not lay claim thatWicked ’s Best Film profits from NBR is inconsequent to the 2025 Oscars race . It ’s simply deserving place out that the importance of the Best Film winner from NBR has decreased drastically this millennium . It ’s been five years since the Oscars gave Best Picture to the NBR Best Film winner;Green Book ’s surprising winnings was the first time they matched in a decennary . Add in the fact that Best Picture seldom goes to musical comedy likeWicked , and I do n’t feel that the Broadway version is suddenly a frontrunner to win - despite its broad appeal .
What Wicked’s National Board Of Review Best Film Win Actually Means For The 2025 Oscars
Wicked Is Much Closer To A Best Picture Nomination Now
While I ’m not of the belief thatWickedis in the best blot to win Best Picture right now , its Best Film win does dramatically increase my conviction that it will be a Best Picture nominee . This , again , is tied to how the National Board of Review and the Oscars can overlap . Throughout NBR ’s history , the Best Film winner has at least been nominated for Best Picture 71 out of 92 times . That intend the Best Film victor gets a Best Picture Oscar nomination over 77 % of the time . Wickedshould be the 72nd time it has happen .
There are some notable example that make up the rest 23 % of NBR Best Film winners , with Spike Lee’sDa 5 Bloodsmarking the most late film to miss out on a Best Picture nomination . But just as the odds of the winners touch have drop since the turn of the hundred , there have been few examples of a movie make headway at NBR and missing out at the Academy Awards , with only three films doing so . That ’s a great sign of the zodiac forWickedto at least fasten a Best Picture nominating speech .
Moulin Rougewas the last musical comedy to win Best Film beforeWicked
Custom Image by Cooper Hood
This could ultimately leaveWickedin a spot tofollow a similar awards season trajectory as 2001’sMoulin Rouge . The film earned eight Oscar nomination , including Best Picture , after winning the top prize from the National Board of Review . Moulin Rougewas the last musical to win Best Film beforeWicked , and there ’s a clear roadmap for the 2024 musical to be a serious contender fornominations in several 2025 Oscars categories . This is all good forWickedto bring in a Best Picture nomination , even if I think it needs to do a lot more before it can win .
Your Rating
Your comment has not been salve
Cast
